China's foreign trade is moving forward in transformation and development
The coming 2020 will be an extremely extraordinary year for Chinese history and even human history, and it will certainly leave a special mark in China's economic history.
According to the foreign trade data released by the Ministry of Commerce, according to single-quarter statistics, in the first quarter of this year, China's total foreign trade import and export value was 6.57 trillion yuan, down 6.4% from the same period last year; in the second quarter, China's foreign trade import and export value was 7.67 trillion yuan. In the third quarter, the total value of China’s foreign trade imports and exports was 8.88 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. However, since April, exports have achieved positive growth for three consecutive months. . From January to September this year, China’s foreign trade growth rate turned from negative to positive for the first time during the year, up 0.7% year-on-year; from January to October, foreign trade growth rate increased to 1.1%; entering November, the growth rate continued to expand.
"At the beginning of the year, Chinese foreign trade companies were anxious because they didn't have orders, but later they were soft when they received orders, while raw materials and transportation were anxious." A foreign trade company commissioner revealed to a reporter from China Trade News that in the second half of the year, Foreign trade orders began to decline, and factory orders soared in November, refreshing the highest growth rate in the past three years. According to current order statistics, the high order operation will continue into the first half of next year.
According to statistics, in November, China's foreign trade imports and exports hit a monthly record of 3.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.8%. Among them, exports were 1.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.9%, and the trade surplus was 507.1 billion yuan, an increase of 92.6%.
Many scholars have expressed surprises for such results. The "deep V-shaped" rebound and unexpected growth of China's foreign trade throughout the year have highlighted the upturn in China's macroeconomic situation and the positive effects of China's epidemic prevention and control. The "World Economic Outlook Report" released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economy will shrink by 4.4% in 2020 and the Chinese economy will grow by 1.9%, making it the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth.
"Stabilizing foreign trade" is the main line of China's economic work this year. Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia outbreak at the beginning of the year, various central ministries and departments, in conjunction with various localities and departments, have issued a series of support policies and measures, ranging from resumption of work and production, fiscal and taxation, finance, credit insurance, participation, legal assistance, and anti-epidemic material protection. Solve problems for foreign trade companies. With the intensive introduction of various foreign trade stabilization policies gradually appearing, foreign trade companies in various regions have resumed work and production.
The year-on-year growth rate of China's foreign trade, especially the single month of export this year, has continued to rise. This is also related to the severe damage or even "shutdown" of industrial chains and supply chains in many overseas countries under the epidemic, and China's competitive advantage has become more prominent. Xu Qiyuan, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that due to the prevention and control of the epidemic, the progress of the resumption of production and the recovery of the economy, it is in a leading position among the major economies in the world. increase. As global economic activities return to normal, this substitution effect will weaken, and China's export growth rate and market share will return to normal levels.
With the support of a series of policies, China's foreign trade has also shown a trend of transformation and development.
First of all, China's free trade "circle of friends" continues to expand. As a giant free trade agreement covering approximately 30% of the world’s population, economic output and total trade volume, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) was formally signed within the year and entered the domestic approval process in some member states. Once the RCEP officially takes effect, the scale of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN, the largest trading partner, will be further expanded, and the industrial chain and supply chain will also accelerate integration. "On the one hand, RCEP upgraded the existing '10+1' free trade area agreement signed by ASEAN and the other five countries and gradually unified the standards. On the other hand, the free trade agreement provides a comprehensive and high level of financial and other service trade. These arrangements can adapt to the future direction of trade development.” said Wan Zhe, a professor at the Belt and Road College of Beijing Normal University.
Second, cross-border e-commerce has performed well. As an emerging trade format, cross-border e-commerce has bucked the market with advantages such as online transactions, contactless delivery, and short transaction chains, playing an active role for foreign trade companies in responding to the impact of the epidemic. During the epidemic, cross-border e-commerce import and export trade volume rose instead of falling, becoming an important force in stabilizing foreign trade. In the first three quarters, China imported and exported 187.39 billion yuan through the customs cross-border e-commerce management platform, a year-on-year increase of 52.8%. Dai Hongfei, vice president of Amazon global and head of Amazon's global store opening Asia-Pacific region, said that while the global consumer trend is shifting from offline to online, Chinese export cross-border e-commerce is also changing from the "new format" of the foreign trade industry to " "New Normal" has gradually become an important growth point for China's foreign trade exports.
Finally, actively constructing a new development pattern of "dual cycles" will help China's foreign trade optimize the industrial structure and supply chain structure. In 2019, China's dependence on foreign trade has dropped from 64.24% in 2006 to 31.85%, but compared with other developed countries, China's domestic circular economy still accounts for a relatively low proportion of GDP. The reporter also noticed in the interview that many foreign trade companies believe that the domestic market is large and the consumption potential is great, but there is also a general inadaptability of exporting to domestic sales. The transformation of enterprises faces many factors such as differences in Chinese and foreign products, channel transfer, market development, and financial pressure Factor constraints. In fact, this is also a development bottleneck that Chinese foreign trade companies have been facing, and they also need to make up for their shortcomings as soon as possible in the "dual cycle" development pattern.
The third quarter of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences "Global Macroeconomic Quarterly Report" pointed out that after entering July, the external economic prosperity index has rebounded to above 50, but the recovery of the global economy is still not optimistic. With the arrival of the cold winter season, the survival and spread of the virus may accelerate, the epidemic situation in developed economies such as the United States and Europe may rebound, and economic activities may once again be partially suspended.
A careful analysis is not difficult to find that in recent years, China's foreign trade situation has become more and more severe, but good results have been achieved every year. This also shows the characteristics of China's foreign trade resilience and quick response. Some scholars said that considering that the world economy will resume growth next year and the demand for consumer goods is expected to rebound sharply, China's foreign trade will continue to maintain a certain growth trend.